Pragmatist Kemi Badenoch wins Tory leadership TV showdown with Robert Jenrick

For Kemi Badenoch, less is more.

Before the Tory leadership TV showdown with rival Robert Jenrick, she'd declared: "I'm running a grassroots campaign, not a TV campaign or a media campaign."

She was the frontrunner, after all, and according to conventional wisdom, had the most to lose from round-the-clock media interviews - which Mr Jenrick has done - and TV debates - which Mr Jenrick has demanded.

But in this TV leadership event in front of an audience of 400 Conservative Party members, hosted by GB News, she was the winner by a considerable distance and will now be odds-on favourite to become the next Tory leader.

This is likely to have been the only TV event with the two leadership candidates, given that a BBC programme proposed for next week is now in doubt because the Tories want to charge the audience for tickets.

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But Ms Badenoch's performance here certainly appears to have vindicated her strategy of being sparing with her TV appearances. Despite her reputation for abrasiveness, here she was measured, good-natured - polished, even.

Voice-coaching, media training? Possibly. If so, it paid off. She was the clear winner. Calm, poised, well-briefed.

The show of hands among the audience at the end of the two-hour event was overwhelmingly in Ms Badenoch's favour. And Mr Jenrick will now be struggling to recover. He needs to rethink his campaign.

But it's almost certainly too late for that. Ballot papers to Conservative Party members were sent out this week and it's predicted that many of them will vote within a few days of receiving them, so the contest could effectively be almost over.

Mr Jenrick has been accused of being a "one-trick immigration pony" and during this programme he concentrated too much on this one issue. He even prompted a groan from interviewer Christopher Hope at one point and then insisted his message on immigration and the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) was worth repeating.

Ms Badenoch, on the other hand, showed a better grasp of detail on a range of issues, from public spending to welfare policy, from the NHS to prisons. And she revealed herself to be a pragmatist rather than a dogmatist on contentious issues like Brexit and Mr Jenrick's obsession with leaving the ECHR.

Leaving the ECHR wasn't a "silver bullet", she said. And she rejected a "bonfire of EU regulations", saying she wasn't going to scrap product safety laws. She was pragmatic on releasing prisoners from overcrowded jails too, saying the safety of prison officers was the top priority.

She was emphatic, though, on pledging to scrap Labour's move to slap VAT on private school fees, claiming it would be the first thing she would do if she became prime minister. On this, and all her pledges, she won warm applause. But this was probably the best crowd-pleaser.

And her answers to the inevitable questions about Sir Christopher Chope's claim that she couldn't be a mother and Tory leader were classy, pointing out that men as well as women have parental responsibilities.

She was most powerful on the threat posed to the Conservatives by Nigel Farage and Reform UK. She said Mr Farage "speaks with clarity and conviction", whereas the Tories - under Rishi Sunak, though she didn't name him - spoke like technocrats and managers.

But she warned that if the Tories "get this wrong" - the leadership election, that is - Reform UK will overtake them. And she insisted there's no place for Mr Farage in a "broad church", because he "wants to burn the church down". A smart line.

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Mr Jenrick, who went first in this hustings, was clearly determined to appeal to the traditional right-wing instincts of Tory members. But he overdid the emphasis on immigration and the ECHR and at times sounded too much as if he was giving answers to questions that the audience wanted to hear.

After the event, the Jenrick camp were unrepentant. A spokesperson for the Tory leadership contender said: "Politicians should have policies - they do matter. None more so than on immigration.

"We won't regain people's trust unless we set out what we'd do differently this time.

"After the comparative performances tonight, the case for a real head-to-head debate is even stronger. Party members deserve to see these candidates debate the big challenges facing our country."

But, if this turns out to be the only TV event, it may have been Mr Jenrick's chance to catch up in the leadership race.

The race may not be over officially until the end of October, but on the evidence of this programme, Ms Badenoch is on course for victory.

(c) Sky News 2024: Pragmatist Kemi Badenoch wins Tory leadership TV showdown with Robert Jenrick