If an election is called, who would win in Herefordshire?

Herefordshire will still be all-Blue even in a predicted general election trouncing for the Conservatives, according to the latest in-depth national polling.

Based on 14,110 responses, the YouGov MRP poll released this week says if an election were to be held now, Labour would win a majority of 120 MPs in the Commons.

Sir Keir Starmer’s party would more than double its current tally of 183 MPs, while the Conservatives would lose more than half their current 365 seats.

But the polling firm reckons the North Herefordshire seat of Sir Bir Wiggin and the Hereford & South Herefordshire seat of Jesse Norman will be safe for the Conservatives.

It predicts that the Tories would still get 35 per cent in North Herefordshire, well down on Sir Bill’s 2019 vote share of 63 per cent, but still comfortably ahead of the chasing pack of Labour (22 per cent), the Liberal Democrats (16 per cent), Greens (13 per cent) and Reform UK (12 per cent).

There would be a similar in Hereford & South Herefordshire, with the Conservatives again on 35 per cent, Labour on 29 per cent, the Lib Dems on 14 per cent and Reform UK again on 12 per cent.

Predicted to eat substantially into the Conservative vote nationally, Reform UK have named Andrew Dye as their North Herefordshire candidate and will put up Nigel Ely in Hereford & South Herefordshire.

The poll will come as a disappointment to the Greens, for whom North Herefordshire is one of four target seats nationally. YouGov does not expect the party to add to its current single constituency of Brighton Pavilion.

The LibDems are expected to bounce back from their current tally of 11 to take 48 seats, mostly in rural seats at the Conservatives’ expense. Labour will meanwhile once again dominate London, Birmingham and much of the north of England.

But Herefordshire will still find itself largely in a sea of blue, with the Conservatives also holding Forest of Dean, West Worcestershire, South Shropshire and Brecon, Radnor & Cwm Tawe, the poll predicts.